Kamala Harris No Longer Favorite in New Hampshire: Election Forecast

Kamala Harris is no longer the favorite to win in New Hampshire, according to a top election forecast.
According to RealClearPolitics’ forecast, New Hampshire is now a toss-up state after it was previously classed as “leans Democrat.”
However, RealClearPolitics’ polling average still shows that Harris is 4.5 points ahead in the state.
It comes after the latest New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll released Sunday night gave Donald Trump 50.2 percent of the vote in the state, a razor-thin lead on Harris’ 49.8 points.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment.
The latest forecast shows that with New Hampshire as a toss-up state, more 100 Electoral College votes are now in play for either candidate to take, meaning the race is anybody’s to win.
The latest polling is bad news for the Harris campaign, which is virtually neck and neck with the Trump campaign with less than a week to go until the election. And with such a close race, New Hampshire could be pivotal in swaying the election, despite only having four Electoral College votes.
As well as New Hampshire and the seven battleground states, Minnesota is also considered a toss-up state. According to RealClearPolitics’ forecast, Harris is currently 4.8 points ahead in the state, which has 10 Electoral College votes.
New Hampshire, which is considered one of the most conservative states in the northeastern United States, voted against Trump in 2016 and 2020, with Biden winning the state by 7.2 points in 2020, while Clinton won the state by just 0.3 points in 2016.
However, New Hampshire is not considered a swing state, with a Democrat having won the state every year since 2000.
Nonetheless, Trump’s campaign has been determined to keep treating New Hampshire as a winnable state throughout the 2024 campaign, with the Trump campaign’s national press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, who is a New Hampshire native, telling Newsweek earlier this week that Harris’ campaign was on the back foot in the Granite State.
“There’s a reason Kamala Harris has been spending money in New Hampshire. She’s on defense and knows President Trump is on the path to victory,” Leavitt said in a statement.
Polling aggregators and individual polls still put Harris ahead in the state, although Trump is still making gains. For example, FiveThirtyEight shows that Harris is 5.1 points ahead in New Hampshire, down from 7 points at the beginning of October. Meanwhile, pollster Nate Silver’s tracker shows Harris 5.2 points ahead in the state, with Trump having gained 2.2 points in the polls in New Hampshire in the past month.
Harris has led every individual poll in New Hampshire since she became the Democratic nominee for president, other than the most recent New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll.
The most recent survey from The Dartmouth Poll, conducted between October 5 and 18, showed Harris leading Trump by a massive 20.8 points (58.5 percent to 37.7 percent). That poll surveyed 2,211 registered New Hampshire voters.
But Emerson College released a poll last week that put Harris only three points ahead and, combined with the latest New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll, the data is beginning to suggest a tightening race.
Betting odds website Polymarket currently gives Harris an 80 percent chance of carrying the state.
In September, the Trump campaign ousted a volunteer who warned in an email that New Hampshire was “no longer a battleground state” and instead said the campaign should focus its efforts and resources on winning Pennsylvania.